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Task Force on NATO-Russia Challenges: Responding to New and Emerging Threats

The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) was created in 1949 by the United States, Canada, and several Western European nations to provide collective security against the Soviet Union. During the next forty years the Alliance provided for mutual defense, the expansion of democratic ideals and helped create a prosperous, peaceful Europe. After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 NATO continued as a viable organization, even expanding into Eastern Europe. But since the 2014 Russian annexation of Crimea NATO is facing unprecedented new challenges from an old adversary.

Although Russia lacks a coherent ideology comparable to the Soviet era, it has shown extraordinary success in projecting power and influence. Russia is now able to threaten its former Eastern European allies, even attempting to undermine free elections in the West. Although its economy is heavily dependent on oil and gas, Russia manages to rebuild its armed forces and conduct major exercises on the periphery of NATO. Despite all its limitations, Russia today can project power far beyond its means, focusing on critical vulnerabilities in the West.

Will NATO and the Atlantic Alliance be ready to respond to emerging and hybrid threats? This is a multidimensional problem with short and long term consequences important to the future of the US and the Western Democracies. Students will have access to the NATO Defense College in Rome for expert assistance with their research. Task Force students will be divided into five groups of two students each, tentative assignments include:

Political Issues: How can NATO maintain political unity among its members and a functional partnership with Russia? Should NATO change its role in international security? What is the future of NATO-Russian cooperation? What is the future of NATO enlargement?

Energy Issues: What current safeguards are present? What institutional safeguards can be put in place to prevent attacks on energy security? How should NATO respond to attacks on energy availability and security? Given that the EU views energy security in an economic and political context, should NATO be concerned with the potential for close cooperation between Russia and the rest of Europe?

Cyber Threats, Hybrid and Information Warfare: What forms of deterrence are effective in hybrid warfare? What lessons can be gained from Ukraine in terms of plausible deniability and indirect action? What are the most appropriate offensive and defensive policies used today? And most importantly, what NATO action can be taken to better address hybrid threats?

Students will be tasked with answering these questions along with providing a series of policy recommendations, looking ahead to the year 2025. The formal report will be completed by the end of February, and the evaluation will be scheduled in March at the UW Rome Center. The evaluation will be conducted in Rome by a senior NATO Official, last year it was the Deputy Secretary General for Operations.

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Task Force M Librarian

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Emily Keller
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Contact:
Suzzallo Library
206-685-2660